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The future of smartphones? Look to the desktop computer
As I write, Apple stock is tanking due to slashed revenue and sales forecasts. In a January 2 letter to investors, Apple CEO Tim Cook placed the blame on weakness in China’s economy, as well as “consumers adapting to a world with fewer carrier subsidies, US dollar strength-related price increases, and some customers taking advantage of significantly reduced pricing for iPhone battery replacements.”
I don’t doubt Cook’s analysis as far as it goes, but in my opinion it is somewhat myopic. Reading between the lines, Cook’s letter hints at a key reason worldwide demand for new iPhones is fundamentally cooling and is not likely ever to recover to previous levels.
Smartphones are now a mature technology, like desktop computers. They’re not ‘sexy’ anymore, and consumers are caring less and less about new models. If the old one works fine for your needs, why spend $1000+ every two years on a new one?
There was a time when people were excited to buy a new desktop computer, or home computer as they were known in the 1980s. Early generations of computers such as the Apple II, Macintosh, Commodore 64, Amiga, and IBM PC compatibles, were little boxes that worked like magic. Composing a document with a word processor was so much easier than typing it using a typewriter, even if the output on your typical dot matrix printer didn’t look as good.
